The Oil Is Moving. So Are the Targets.

Oil markets love a number they can put in a spreadsheet. Gulf crude exports topped prewar levels on 14 days in September, according to provisional Kpler data reported by Reuters. That total includes Hormuz, the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman shipments. The regional recovery looks reassuring right up until the ship carrying the barrel becomes the target.^[1][3][5]

Reuters says maritime-security sources counted at least 12 attacks on oil, LNG and LPG tankers around the Strait of Hormuz from September 28 through October 5. That is the highest single-week total since the U.S.-Iran war began on February 28. The International Maritime Organization separately recorded nine incidents for the week; Reuters notes that the U.N. body's verification process takes longer.^[1][4]

The official IMO list is ugly enough without any embellishment. As of October 6 it counted 93 confirmed incidents in the Middle East shipping theater and 24 seafarer deaths. Nine vessels appear as damaged between September 28 and October 4 alone.^[2]

Fact and inference

The facts are the attack counts, the documented damage and the rebound in export volumes. The inference is that “supply recovered” is doing heroic amounts of work. Higher regional export volumes do not mean the Strait of Hormuz is secure. It may simply mean exporters, crews and insurers are accepting more danger because the market needs the cargo.

An adviser to Iran's Revolutionary Guards commander also told Fars that routes Iran considers illegal would soon be closed. That is a reported threat, not proof of what Iran will or can do. The attacks already recorded are enough to make the point.^[3][5]

The spreadsheet says the oil is moving. The shipping lane says the risk premium has a hull number.

October 8 update: The chokepoint got outsourced

Kpler data reported by Reuters counted seven commodity vessels crossing Hormuz on October 6, the lowest since July 23. October 7 improved to 10 vessels, still below the more than 20 seen on October 4 and 5. In a separate October 6 note, Kpler analysts said crude flows through the strait had fallen 27% from the previous week’s wartime high to at least 10.1 million barrels a day, 74% of their prewar level. They attributed most of that decline to ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.^[8]

Crude exports from the Gulf of Oman coast and Red Sea reached 6.7 million barrels a day, more than twice the prewar rate. Those exports helped keep the regional total near its prewar level. The barrel arrived. The chokepoint still had a problem.^[8]

One caveat matters: Kpler’s count excludes vessels with AIS signals switched off. The inference is narrower: regional exports can recover while the strait itself remains badly disrupted.^[8]